A claim under review

A new paper says a famous limit on computing is wrong. What would it take to believe it?

In October 2026, OpenAI posted a paper claiming to break one of computer science’s long-standing “speed limits.” This page starts with what that means in plain terms and goes deeper as you scroll. Stop wherever you like. If you make it to the bottom, there’s something there for you.

Start with the plain version ↓ Read the paper (PDF) ↗
Status: the preprint (OpenAI, 67 pages) is not yet peer-reviewed. Nobody outside its authors has checked the proof yet.
00 / The plain version

A puzzle, a speed limit, and a claim.

The puzzle · play it

Flip the switches until every rule is green.

Each rule needs at least one of its three conditions to be true. Tap a rule to see which switches it watches.

This puzzle is a Boolean formula. See it as code.
# each switch is a variable: True (on) or False (off)
x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7, x8 = ...

# each rule is an OR; "every rule green" is an AND
rules = ((x1 or x2 or not x3) and (not x1 or x3)
     and (x4 or not x2 or x3) and (not x4 or x1 or x2)
     and (x5 or x6 or x7)     and (not x6 or not x8)
     and (not x5 or x8 or x7) and (not x4 or x6 or x8)
     and (x4 or not x7 or x5))

# SAT:  is there ANY setting that makes rules True?
# #SAT: HOW MANY settings do?  ← what the paper counts
# always computable: try all 2**8 = 256. the question is how fast.

Why this puzzle matters: any program whose answer you can check quickly can be rewritten as one of these (the Cook–Levin theorem). So a faster way to solve or count SAT is a faster way to do a lot of things.

1 · Count them

How many of the 256 settings make every rule green?

Guess first, then the computer checks every setting.
2 · Take the shortcut

Pin switch 4, and the puzzle breaks in two.

Every rule that touches switches 1–3 also stays away from 5–8. Switch 4 is the only thing holding the two halves together.

The speed limit. Every switch doubles the settings to check. Your 8 switches gave 256. At 300 switches there are more settings than atoms in the universe. Clever search shrinks the doubling, but the bet since 2001 (ETH) is that you can never escape it.
×× everything touchescount pieces, multiply
The claim. You pinned one switch. The paper claims that fixing a few shared numbers always breaks a puzzle into small pieces. Count each piece, multiply, and skip most of the doubling. Nobody outside the authors has checked that “always” yet.
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01 / How we got here

Two strands, growing toward one question.

1960198020002020 2001 · ETH conjectured 1962 · DPLL backtracking 1998 · PPSZ 1999 · Schöning’s random walk 2001 · sparsification 2005 · split-and-list 2006 · sum–product 2016 · Björklund interpolation 2026claim branching searchalgebra

Solvers have always found shortcuts in sub-problems on many puzzles. The paper claims the shortcut is always there. Its first step is a branching split (sparsification), and its engine is the algebra strand (§1.1.4, §1.1.6).

02 / The claim, in its own words

What it says. What it says it doesn’t.

Math is minified code, so each claim comes with its translation. Check them against the PDF.

Evidence status, as of October 27, 2026:
  • A preprint, credited only to “OpenAI”. Not peer-reviewed.
  • No implementation, benchmark, or formal proof is reported in the paper.
  • One corollary’s context cites another OpenAI preprint from September 2026, which is also unreviewed.
  • We have not found an independent check of the proof. If you find one, that’s new evidence: update.
Before · the bet (ETH, 2001)

No shortcut escapes doubling.

math 2Ω(n)
# for EVERY algorithm, some puzzle forces
steps(n) >= 2 ** (c * n)   # some c > 0

A conjecture, never proved. Whole fields built “this is probably optimal” results on it.

Paper p.4 · [IP01]
Claimed · Theorem 1.1

Counting, with a shrinking cost per switch.

math 2Ok(n log log n / √log n)
L = log(n)
steps(n) = 2 ** (c * n * log(L) / sqrt(L))
# c depends on clause width k. Not given.

Exact counts, deterministic, small memory. If true it also topples SETH, Gap-ETH, NSETH, and #ETH.

Paper p.2, p.4–5
Its own limits

What it says it doesn’t do.

  • ✕ P = NP. Shrinking isn’t polynomial.
  • ✕ Free speedups for all of NP. The gain gets lost when you translate other problems into SAT (p.2).
  • ✕ Unlimited rule size. Only for rules of a fixed size (p.5).
  • ✕ Every hardness result. Some still stand on other assumptions (p.5).
Paper p.2, p.5
03 / Check the number

“Subexponential” is not the same as “fast.”

The claimed cost has a hidden constant c that the paper never gives. Guess first, then move it.

Guess first

On a 1,000-switch puzzle, is the new method faster than the best one we already had?

Hint: the headline says it beats the speed limit.

# what the chart plots
def doublings_per_switch(n, c):
    L = log(n)
    return c * log(L) / sqrt(L)  # brute force: 1.0
Cost per switch, in doublings · lower is faster
Brute forceBest before (2026)Claimed, your c

Natural logs, as in the paper. A polynomial factor is left out, and the paper doesn’t give it either. The sparse curve covers puzzles with a bounded number of rules per switch, which includes the hardest random ones.

04 / The claim ledger

Guess what the paper says, then see where it says it.

Each node is one claim, with a question about it. No math needed: every question can be guessed from common sense, and a wrong guess still gets you the answer. A full node means you’ve guessed it. A bright one means you called it. Speculation stays speculation however many arrows point at it.

●Theorem (claimed proof)◐Corollary the paper asserts◆Open question✧Speculation
CLAIM → CONSEQUENCES → OPEN → SPECULATION
05 / Sci-fi, labelled as sci-fi

What if it’s right? Where could it lead?

Everything in this section is speculation. That’s not an insult. Research directions usually start as stories about what might be true, and they become research when someone writes down the first step precisely enough to fail. Each rung and card below tries to do that: what it would take, the closest real precedent, and what would tell you it’s a dead end.

The long road

From here to P = NP, one rung at a time

    Research questions this opens

    Six places to point an agent

    06 / Your new radar

    Six traps you can now spot.

    Headlines like this one are built to trip everyone, researchers included. This page’s own first draft fell into several. Tick the ones that would have caught you last week, then add one we missed.

    07 / You made it to the bottom

    You just did research. Vibe Research is the class.

    You guessed before you looked. You checked a number against the thing that produced it, sorted claims by their evidence, and learned to spot the traps. Vibe Research is a cohort that takes one question all the way through a research cycle with your own agent.

    See Vibe Research →
    Also running

    Three more ways to use what you just practised.

    Each is a one-day intensive. Take them on their own, or before Vibe Research.